Since 1999 African economies have enjoyed growth rates far above those of the West. Even though 2015 and 2016 saw a sharp economic setback in Nigeria (Africa’s biggest economy), the continent’s economy as a whole stayed strong. Nobody doubts that a major factor in growth since 1999 has been the commodity boom sparked by China’s rising affluence, but many in the West tend to assume that African growth is purely caused by commodities and, by implication, will stop when prices stop rising. But is it time to see Africa as the next great growth story?
Africa’s growth story is now quite longlived. Figure 1 shows the average GDP growth figures for 1998–2007, followed by annual data. It shows that sub-Saharan Africa outperformed Latin America and advanced economies consistently over a period of nearly 20 years. The figures for sub-Saharan Africa would have been even stronger if South Africa had been excluded from the data. Countries such as Ethiopia and Tanzania have enjoyed consistent growth rates of 7–10%.
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