This year has seen the sharpest recession in America, Japan and Europe since 1929. For example, in the period January–April 2009, steel production fell by 40% in Europe and America. Thousands of steelworkers at Corus (formerly British Steel) lost their jobs. Yet in China, steel production rose, if only slightly. In India, production fell, but only by 2%. The early summer months saw sales of cars booming in China and India, confirming the likelihood that both economies will enjoy a good 2009. In a year where British output may fall by 4%, China’s will rise by 7–8%, with India’s growth at a similar level. Recession? What recession?
Car sales in China for 2009 are forecast to match those in America at a figure of around 11 million vehicles. Even a year ago that would have seemed incredible, as US car sales were double those in China. Ten years ago, US car sales were 17 million while those in China were 0.5 million, i.e. the US figure was 34 times higher than in China. The German luxury carmaker Porsche says it expects China to become its second biggest market worldwide in 2010. The bankrupt US carmaker General Motors is also trusting that China will be the key to its state-funded future. Over the past 10 years, car sales growth in China has been greater than in the whole of Europe and America combined. For the car business worldwide, the strategy for success means success in China.
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